Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

TitleClimate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsRodo X, Pascual M, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Gershunov A, Stone DA, Giorgi F, Hudson PJ, Kinter J, Rodriguez-Arias MA, Stenseth NC, Alonso D, Garcia-Serrano J, Dobson AP
JournalClimatic Change
Volume118
Pagination625-640
Date Published2013/06
Type of ArticleArticle
ISBN Number0165-0009
Accession NumberWOS:000319418300011
Keywords21st-century; africa; cholera dynamics; endemic cholera; malaria; precipitation; sensitivity; temperature; transmission; variability
Abstract

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.

DOI10.1007/s10584-013-0744-1
Short TitleClim. Change
Integrated Research Themes: 
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