|Title||A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing|
|Publication Type||Journal Article|
|Year of Publication||2013|
|Authors||Di Lorenzo E, Ohman MD|
|Journal||Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America|
|Type of Article||Article|
|Keywords||california; california current; Climate variability; current; ecosystem shifts; ocean climate; oscillation; regime shifts; sectors; zooplankton dynamics|
Long-term time series of marine ecological indicators often are characterized by large-amplitude state transitions that can persist for decades. Understanding the significance of these variations depends critically on the underlying hypotheses characterizing expected natural variability. Using a linear autoregressive model in combination with long-term zooplankton observations off the California coast, we show that cumulative integrations of white-noise atmospheric forcing can generate marine population responses that are characterized by strong transitions and prolonged apparent state changes. This model provides a baseline hypothesis for explaining ecosystem variability and for interpreting the significance of abrupt responses and climate change signatures in marine ecosystems.