A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing

TitleA double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsDi Lorenzo E, Ohman MD
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume110
Pagination2496-2499
Date Published2013/02
Type of ArticleArticle
ISBN Number0027-8424
Accession NumberWOS:000315812800030
Keywordscalifornia; california current; Climate variability; current; ecosystem shifts; ocean climate; oscillation; regime shifts; sectors; zooplankton dynamics
Abstract

Long-term time series of marine ecological indicators often are characterized by large-amplitude state transitions that can persist for decades. Understanding the significance of these variations depends critically on the underlying hypotheses characterizing expected natural variability. Using a linear autoregressive model in combination with long-term zooplankton observations off the California coast, we show that cumulative integrations of white-noise atmospheric forcing can generate marine population responses that are characterized by strong transitions and prolonged apparent state changes. This model provides a baseline hypothesis for explaining ecosystem variability and for interpreting the significance of abrupt responses and climate change signatures in marine ecosystems.

DOI10.1073/pnas.1218022110
Student Publication: 
No
sharknado