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Global Carbon Budget 2017

TitleGlobal Carbon Budget 2017
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2018
AuthorsLe Quere C, Andrew R.M, Friedlingstein P., Sitch S., Pongratz J., Manning A.C, Korsbakken J.I, Peters G.P, Canadell J.G, Jackson R.B, Boden T.A, Tans P.P, Andrews O.D, Arora V.K, Bakker D.CE, Barbero L., Becker M., Betts R.A, Bopp L., Chevallier F, Chini L.P, Ciais P., Cosca C.E, Cross J., Currie K., Gasser T., Harris I., Hauck J., Haverd V., Houghton R.A, Hunt C.W, Hurtt G., Ilyina T., Jain A.K, Kato E., Kautz M., Keeling RF, Goldewijk K.K, Kortzinger A., Landschutzer P, Lefevre N, Lenton A, Lienert S., Lima I., Lombardozzi D., Metzl N, Millero F., Monteiro P.MS, Munro D.R, Nabel J, Nakaoka S., Nojiri Y, Padin X.A, Peregon A., Pfeil B., Pierrot D., Poulter B., Rehder G., Reimer J., Rodenbeck C, Schwinger J, Seferian R., Skjelvan I., Stocker B.D, Tian H.Q, Tilbrook B., Tubiello F.N, van der Laan-Luijkx I.T, van der Werf G.R, van Heuven S., Viovy N., Vuichard N., Walker A.P, Watson AJ, Wiltshire A.J, Zaehle S., Zhu D.
JournalEarth System Science Data
Date Published2018/03
Type of ArticleArticle; Data Paper
ISBN Number1866-3508
Accession NumberWOS:000427271100001
Keywordsanthropogenic co2 uptake; atmospheric co2; dioxide emissions; earth system model; environment simulator jules; fossil-fuel combustion; Geology; international-trade; land-cover change; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; mixed-layer scheme; vegetation model

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B-IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma. For the last decade available (2007-2016), E-FF was 9.4 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 1.3 +/- 0.7 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.7 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.4 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 3.0 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1), with a budget imbalance B-IM of 0.6 GtC yr(-1) indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in E-FF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1). Also for 2016, E-LUC was 1.3 +/- 0.7 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 6.1 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 2.7 +/- 1.0 GtC yr(-1), with a small B-IM of 0.3 GtC. G(ATM) continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007-2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small S-LAND consistent with El Nino conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 +/- 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in E-FF of +2.0% (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quere et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from (GCP, 2017).

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