Increases in flood magnitudes in California under warming climates

TitleIncreases in flood magnitudes in California under warming climates
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsDas T, Maurer EP, Pierce DW, Dettinger MD, Cayan DR
JournalJournal of Hydrology
Date Published2013/09
ISBN Number0022-1694
Accession NumberWOS:000325388300009

Downscaled and hydrologically modeled projections from an ensemble of 16  Global Climate Models suggest that flooding may become more intense on  the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada mountains, the primary source  for California's managed water system. By the end of the 21st century,  all 16 climate projections for the high greenhouse-gas emission SRES A2  scenario yield larger floods with return periods ranging 2-50 years for  both the Northern Sierra Nevada and Southern Sierra Nevada, regardless  of the direction of change in mean precipitation. By end of century,  discharges from the Northern Sierra Nevada with 50-year return periods  increase by 30-90% depending on climate model, compared to historical  values. Corresponding flood flows from the Southern Sierra increase by  50-100%. The increases in simulated 50 year flood flows are larger (at  95% confidence level) than would be expected due to natural variability  by as early as 2035 for the SRES A2 scenario. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All  rights reserved.

Short TitleJ. Hydrol.
Integrated Research Themes: 
Student Publication: