Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown

TitleIncreasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2018
AuthorsJohnson N.C, Xie SP, Kosaka Y, Li X.C
JournalNature Communications
Volume9
Date Published2018/04
Type of ArticleArticle
ISBN Number2041-1723
Accession NumberWOS:000431113000012
Keywordsamplification; Arctic; circulation; climate-change; hiatus; model; north-atlantic; pacific; Science & Technology - Other Topics; sea-ice loss; surface-temperature; temperature extremes
Abstract

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

DOI10.1038/s41467-018-04040-y
Short TitleNat. Commun.
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