Indian Ocean dipole response to global warming in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

TitleIndian Ocean dipole response to global warming in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsZheng XT, Xie SP, Du Y., Liu L., Huang G, Liu QY
JournalJournal of Climate
Date Published2013/08
Type of ArticleArticle
ISBN Number0894-8755
Accession NumberWOS:000322759700021
Keywordsair-sea interaction; asymmetry; atmospheric bridge; circulation; climate change; Climate prediction; Climate variability; climate-change; Coupled models; enso; Indian Ocean; indo-pacific; interannual variability; patterns; teleconnections; variability

The response of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode to global warming is investigated based on simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In response to increased greenhouse gases, an IOD-like warming pattern appears in the equatorial Indian Ocean, with reduced (enhanced) warming in the east (west), an easterly wind trend, and thermocline shoaling in the east. Despite a shoaling thermocline and strengthened thermocline feedback in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, the interannual variance of the IOD mode remains largely unchanged in sea surface temperature (SST) as atmospheric feedback and zonal wind variance weaken under global warming. The negative skewness in eastern Indian Ocean SST is reduced as a result of the shoaling thermocline. The change in interannual IOD variance exhibits some variability among models, and this intermodel variability is correlated with the change in thermocline feedback. The results herein illustrate that mean state changes modulate interannual modes, and suggest that recent changes in the IOD mode are likely due to natural variations.

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