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Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics

TitleInter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2019
AuthorsRypdal M., Sugihara G
Volume10
Date Published2019/05
Type of ArticleArticle
ISBN Number2041-1723
Accession NumberWOS:000469421100011
Keywordschaos; error; measles; Science & Technology - Other Topics
Abstract

For dengue fever and other seasonal epidemics we show how the stability of the preceding inter-outbreak period can predict subsequent total outbreak magnitude, and that a feasible stability metric can be computed from incidence data alone. As an observable of a dynamical system, incidence data contains information about the underlying mechanisms: climatic drivers, changing serotype pools, the ecology of the vector populations, and evolving viral strains. We present mathematical arguments to suggest a connection between stability measured in incidence data during the inter-outbreak period and the size of the effective susceptible population. The method is illustrated with an analysis of dengue incidence in San Juan, Puerto Rico, where forecasts can be made as early as three to four months ahead of an outbreak. These results have immediate significance for public health planning, and can be used in combination with existing forecasting methods and more comprehensive dengue models.

DOI10.1038/s41467-019-10099-y2374
Student Publication: 
No
Research Topics: