Origin of seasonal predictability for summer climate over the Northwestern Pacific

TitleOrigin of seasonal predictability for summer climate over the Northwestern Pacific
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsKosaka Y, Xie SP, Lau NC, Vecchi GA
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume110
Pagination7574-7579
Date Published2013/05
Type of ArticleArticle
ISBN Number0027-8424
Accession NumberWOS:000319327700026
Keywordsair-sea interaction; air-temperature; East Asian summer monsoon; el-nino; enso; indian-ocean; interbasin interaction; model; monsoon rainfall; part i; sea-surface temperature; sst; tropical variability; western north pacific
Abstract

Summer climate in the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) displays large year-to-year variability, affecting densely populated Southeast and East Asia by impacting precipitation, temperature, and tropical cyclones. The Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern provides a crucial link of high predictability from the tropics to East Asia. Using coupled climate model experiments, we show that the PJ pattern is the atmospheric manifestation of an air-sea coupled mode spanning the Indo-NWP warm pool. The PJ pattern forces the Indian Ocean (IO) via a westward propagating atmospheric Rossby wave. In response, IO sea surface temperature feeds back and reinforces the PJ pattern via a tropospheric Kelvin wave. Ocean coupling increases both the amplitude and temporal persistence of the PJ pattern. Cross-correlation of ocean-atmospheric anomalies confirms the coupled nature of this PJIO mode. The ocean-atmosphere feedback explains why the last echoes of El Nino-Southern Oscillation are found in the IO-NWP in the form of the PJIO mode. We demonstrate that the PJIO mode is indeed highly predictable; a characteristic that can enable benefits to society.

DOI10.1073/pnas.1215582110