|Title||Prioritizing mangrove conservation across Mexico to facilitate 2020 NDC ambition|
|Publication Type||Journal Article|
|Year of Publication||2020|
|Authors||Kumagai J.A, Costa M.T, Ezcurra E., Aburto-Oropeza O|
|Type of Article||Article; Early Access|
|Keywords||blue carbon; carbon sequestration; carbon stocks; conservation; conversion; deforestation; drivers; dynamics; Ecosystem services; emissions; Engineering; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; forests; mangroves; mexico; sequestration; shrimp aquaculture; social cost|
There is a scale mismatch between mangrove conservation and carbon emission mitigation policies despite mangroves contributing disproportionally to global carbon sequestration. Using Mexico as a case study in the integration of these scales, we estimate mangrove carbon value and deforestation rates at the municipio (local government) scale and develop a prioritization model that indicates where to focus conservation efforts. By using previously published global models of carbon stocks, Mexico-specific carbon sequestration data, and calculating gross deforestation, we found that the current rate of deforestation will result in a social cost of 392.0 (+/- 7.4) million US$ over the next 25 years. The prioritization model identified 26 municipios of 175, where if all mangroves are conserved, 50% of this cost could be avoided. Bridging the gap between research and governmental action using local initiatives will be paramount for the effective management of mangrove carbon.