Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing

TitleRecent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2014
AuthorsRigby M, Prinn RG, O'Doherty S, Miller B.R, Ivy D., Mühle J, Harth CM, Salameh PK, Arnold T., Weiss RF, Krummel PB, Steele LP, Fraser PJ, Young D, Simmonds PG
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Date Published2014/04
Type of ArticleArticle
ISBN Number0094-8276
Accession NumberWOS:000334983000052
Keywordsatmospheric measurements; emissions; hcfc-22; history; hydrofluorocarbons; in-situ measurements; inverse modeling; lifetimes; montreal protocol; perfluorocarbons; radiative forcing; station; synthetic greenhouse gas

Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355mWm(-2) in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to no HFC policy projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240mWm(-2) by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8years of CO2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for.

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