|Title||Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability|
|Publication Type||Journal Article|
|Year of Publication||2015|
|Authors||Chikamoto Y., Timmermann A., Luo J.J, Mochizuki T., Kimoto M., Watanabe M., Ishii M., Xie SP, Jin F.F|
|Type of Article||Article|
|Keywords||assimilation; atlantic; circulation; data; decadal-scale climate; el-nino; enso; indo-pacific; ocean heat uptake; sea-surface temperature; warming hiatus|
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modeling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Nino Southern Oscillation flavors, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.
|Short Title||Nat. Commun.|