Solar geoengineering as part of an overall strategy for meeting the 1.5 degrees C Paris target

TitleSolar geoengineering as part of an overall strategy for meeting the 1.5 degrees C Paris target
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2018
AuthorsMacMartin D.G, Ricke K.L, Keith D.W
JournalPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences
Volume376
Date Published2018/05
Type of ArticleArticle
ISBN Number1364-503X
Accession NumberWOS:000429046300008
Keywords1.5 degrees C; climate change; climate-change; cloud; degrees-c; geoengineering; hydrological cycle; ozone; radiation management; scenario; science; Science & Technology - Other Topics; stratospheric aerosols; sulfate
Abstract

Solar geoengineering refers to deliberately reducing net radiative forcing by reflecting some sunlight back to space, in order to reduce anthropogenic climate changes; a possible such approach would be adding aerosols to the stratosphere. If future mitigation proves insufficient to limit the rise in global mean temperature to less than 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial, it is plausible that some additional and limited deployment of solar geoengineering could reduce climate damages. That is, these approaches could eventually be considered as part of an overall strategy to manage the risks of climate change, combining emissions reduction, net-negative emissions technologies and solar geoengineering to meet climate goals. We first provide a physical-science review of current research, research trends and some of the key gaps in knowledge that would need to be addressed to support informed decisions. Next, since few climate model simulations have considered these limited-deployment scenarios, we synthesize prior results to assess the projected response if solar geoengineering were used to limit global mean temperature to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial in an overshoot scenario that would otherwise peak near 3 degrees C. While there are some important differences, the resulting climate is closer in many respects to a climate where the 1.5 degrees C target is achieved through mitigation alone than either is to the 3 degrees C climate with no geoengineering. This holds for both regional temperature and precipitation changes; indeed, there are no regions where a majority of models project that this moderate level of gee engineering would produce statistically, significant shift in precipitation further away from preindustrial levels. (This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 15 degrees C above pre-industrial level.')

DOI10.1098/rsta.2016.0454
Short TitlePhilos. Trans. R. Soc. A-Math. Phys. Eng. Sci.
Student Publication: 
No
Research Topics: 
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