Strong influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

TitleStrong influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2014
AuthorsWard P.J, Jongman B., Kummu M., Dettinger MD, Weiland F.CS, Winsemius H.C
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume111
Pagination15659-15664
Date Published2014/11
Type of ArticleArticle
ISBN Number0027-8424
Accession NumberWOS:000344088100026
KeywordsClimate variability; climate-change; disaster; El Nino Southern Oscillation; enso; events; flood hazard; flood risk; global; global-scale; management; scale; science; united-states; variability
Abstract

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO's influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Nino or La Nina years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth's land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world's terrestrial regions.

DOI10.1073/pnas.1409822111
Integrated Research Themes: 
Student Publication: 
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