Speaker: Michael Jacox (NOAA)
Title: Monitoring and predicting California Current System dynamics with global and regional models
Given the ecological and socioeconomic importance of the California Current System (CCS), there is broad interest in monitoring and predicting its variability on multiple timescales. To that end, global climate models and regional ocean models have become indispensable tools for leveraging available observations to predict conditions in unobserved locations or future times. In this talk, I will present recent advances in (i) monitoring CCS variability, specifically with new model-based upwelling indices that improve upon the historical "Bakun Index" by better representing the effects of wind forcing, ocean circulation, and subsurface nutrient variability, and (ii) predicting nearshore variability from global climate forecast systems, with a focus on mechanisms of predictability and their relation to predictions of the 2013-16 northeast Pacific warm anomalies.