Weekly CASPO Seminar: Join us on Zoom every Wednesday at 3:30 pm to hear about the latest and greatest in Climate, Atmospheric Sciences, and Physical Oceanography!
Shih-Wei Fang (UC Irvine) will be presenting a talk titled "ENSO Transition Complexity and its Underlying Dynamics."
Transitions from one El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event to another can occur in various ways and constitute a key element of ENSO complexity. While ENSO amplitude, periodicity, and flavor have been frequently studied, ENSO transition complexity in the observation and models has not been as thoroughly evaluated. We developed a dynamic framework to explain how three transition patterns (i.e., episodic ENSO, cyclic ENSO, and multi-year ENSO) are produced and use this framework to examine CMIP model simulations and to project the future changes. The dynamic framework focuses on the ENSO onset dynamics, rather than the ENSO growth dynamics that are more often discussed for other ENSO properties. In this talk, I will discuss (1) how the ENSO onset mechanisms control the ENSO transitions (2) how well the ENSO transition complexity and its underlying dynamics are simulated in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models; and (3) how the complexity dynamics affect the model projections of future ENSO complexity.
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