Caspo Seminar: Xuebin Zhang (CSIRO), "Sea Level Projections for the Australian region in the 21st Century"

06/14/2018 - 3:30pm
330 Spiess Hall

Sea levels have been rising globally during the 20th century, and are projected to continue to rise during the 21st century and beyond, with significant regional differences. Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, sea-level projections in the 21st century have been produced for the Australian region by taking account of regional dynamic changes, ocean thermal expansion, mass loss of glaciers, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, changes in land water storage and glacial isostatic adjustment. However, these regional projections have a coarse resolution (~100 km), while coastal adaptation planners demand finer scale information at the coast. To address this need, a 1/10o near-global ocean general circulation model is used to downscale future climate in the 21st century driven by ensemble average forcings from 17 CMIP5 models under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). We produce high-resolution sea-level projections by combining downscaling-derived dynamic sea level with other contributions. Off the southeast coast, dynamic downscaling provides a better representation of high sea-level projections associated with gyre circulation and boundary current changes. The high-resolution sea-level projection should be a valuable product for coastal adaptation and planning. (DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074176)

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Olavo Marques
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