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Distinct energy budgets for anthropogenic and natural changes during global warming hiatus

In summary, we have shown that anthropogenic warming and natural variability are governed by distinct relationships between GMT and TOA radiation. Whereas a linear relationship is well established for the forced response, the correlation between GMT and TOA radiation is low and phase shifted for natural variability on decadal and longer timescales. We proposed a revised energy theory that distinguishes forced change and natural variability.

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