Our third CASPO Seminar speaker is our very own Dr. Bernie Bastien, SIO!
Ecosystems contribute to human well-being through both market and non-market benefits. Climate change will alter the distribution of ecosystems around the world and change the flow of these benefits. The implications of ecosystem changes for human welfare depend on both the nature of these changes and the extent to which communities rely on natural systems for their well-being. In this work, we estimate country-level changes in non-market ecosystem services and economic production resulting from climate change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover, as projected by dynamic global vegetation models driven by general circulation climate models. Our results show that the mean global flow of ecosystem services is reduced by 20% in 2100 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario (~2.6°C increase), and that the mean global GDP decreases 0.8% in 2100. Because poor economies are more reliant on natural capital, these GDP effects are regressive, with much larger negative effects in poorer regions, with Africa experiencing a GDP reduction equivalent to 14% of its GDP in 2018. Limiting the temperature increase within 2°C could cut the damage on GDP and ecosystem services at least by half and reduce economic inequality among countries.
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