Mangrove Loss in Acapulco Likely Worsened the Devastation of Hurricane Otis
Researchers find mangroves are key to reducing hurricane impacts, protecting vulnerable communities, and mitigating climate change
Healthy mangroves on Mexico's southern Pacific coast. Photo credit: Octavio Aburto
New research led by UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography highlights the critical role of mangroves in protecting coastal communities from the devastating effects of climate change—particularly hurricanes.
On the night of Oct. 25, 2023, Hurricane Otis struck the iconic port of Acapulco, Mexico, with winds reaching up to 270 kilometers per hour (168 miles per hour), making it one of the most devastating tropical cyclones in the country's recent history. The destruction was unprecedented, resulting in 50 deaths and leading to the disappearance of more than 30 people. The impact also left an indelible mark on the region's infrastructure and housing, with estimated damages ranging from 200 to 300 billion pesos ($9.9 to $14.8 billion), according to various non-governmental sources.
In a new exploratory study by climate scientist Bernie A. Bastien-Olvera and colleagues, the researchers show that preserving mangrove ecosystems could have significantly reduced the damage caused by Hurricane Otis. The study highlights that the mangrove coverage existing in the 1980s could have protected coastal infrastructure and prevented the destruction of dozens of homes. These findings illustrate how mangrove deforestation—driven by urbanization and tourism expansion—has weakened the region's natural defenses against hurricanes.
"As climate change intensifies events like Hurricane Otis, the role of coastal ecosystems becomes essential to ensuring the resilience of our communities," said Bastien-Olvera, a former postdoctoral researcher at Scripps Oceanography and newly appointed assistant professor at the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Change at Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM).
The research, published Dec. 20 as a commentary in the journal Science of the Total Environment, uses satellite data and a statistical method known as a regression analysis to calculate the protective effects of mangroves during Hurricane Otis in October 2023. The results highlight the importance of maintaining mangrove coverage to reduce damage to vegetation, infrastructure, and housing.
The team statistically analyzed the relationship between house destruction, proximity to mangroves, and distance to the coast. Controlling for distance to the coast, they found that fewer houses were destroyed when located closer to mangroves. Using mangrove distribution data from the 1980s—when the mangroves were more plentiful—they estimated that many of the homes destroyed by Hurricane Otis might have been spared if the forests had been preserved.
The study is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration involving researchers with the University of California (UC), including Octavio Aburto-Oropeza from Scripps Oceanography and Exequiel Ezcurra from UC Riverside’s Department of Botany. Both researchers have been pioneers in advocating for the protection of Mexican mangroves, showcasing not only the benefits they provide to fisheries and biodiversity but also their role as critical ecosystems that sequester large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This collaboration between UNAM and the UC system aims to combine ecological knowledge with socio-economic modeling tools to better understand the interactions between climate change and society.
Aburto-Oropeza and Bastien-Olvera are also recognized for their collaboration with civil society organizations and their work in environmental protection as National Geographic Explorers.
Bastien-Olvera said the relevance of the team’s findings is crucial for Mexico, where the Secretariat of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT) has repeatedly expressed its commitment to restoring a significant percentage of mangroves by 2030. This goal not only makes ecological sense but is also supported by this study, reinforcing its importance for protecting human health and communities.
"Our findings reinforce the need to invest in natural capital as an effective and sustainable solution to the impacts of climate change," said the researchers. "A national crusade for mangrove restoration would not only reduce the vulnerability of communities but also contribute to greater climate justice by prioritizing solutions that benefit both people and the environment," they concluded.
In addition to Bastien-Olvera, Aburto-Oropeza, and Ezcurra, the study was co-authored by Alberto Rivera and Fabio Favoretto of Scripps Oceanography at UC San Diego and Sarah Mitchell and Emma Gray, former UC Dan Diego undergraduate laboratory interns in the Aburto Lab. Bastien-Olvera’s work on this study was supported by an Institutional Postdoctoral Program Fellowship from Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
About Scripps Oceanography
Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego is one of the world’s most important centers for global earth science research and education. In its second century of discovery, Scripps scientists work to understand and protect the planet, and investigate our oceans, Earth, and atmosphere to find solutions to our greatest environmental challenges. Scripps offers unparalleled education and training for the next generation of scientific and environmental leaders through its undergraduate, master’s and doctoral programs. The institution also operates a fleet of four oceanographic research vessels, and is home to Birch Aquarium at Scripps, the public exploration center that welcomes 500,000 visitors each year.
About UC San Diego
At the University of California San Diego, we embrace a culture of exploration and experimentation. Established in 1960, UC San Diego has been shaped by exceptional scholars who aren’t afraid to look deeper, challenge expectations and redefine conventional wisdom. As one of the top 15 research universities in the world, we are driving innovation and change to advance society, propel economic growth and make our world a better place. Learn more at ucsd.edu.